The Blueprint - Evans vs. Ortiz II

Evans vs. Ortiz headlines UFC 133 this Saturday in Philadelphia. Michael DiSanto breaks it down... Rashad Evans and Tito Ortiz will dance for the second time this Saturday night.

Forty-nine months ago, Evans and Ortiz squared off in what was a turning point for each of their careers. Evans was taking a major step up in quality of competition. The then-undefeated prospect seemed like he had all the tools to be great, but nobody knew for certain whether he could take his game to the next level. After 15 minutes in the cage with Ortiz, there was no doubt that “Suga” was the real deal.

Ortiz was in a very different place in his career back on July 7, 2007. The former champion was seven months removed from his second technical knockout loss to Chuck Liddell. A bout with Evans was a way of getting back on the championship trail—if he won, of course.

Ortiz neither won nor lost the fight. He suffered an anti-climatic draw, thanks to a point deduction from illegally grabbing the fence in an attempt to prevent a takedown. But for that deduction, the judges would have awarded Ortiz the decision. Yet, it was Evans who likely left the cage that night with the edge in confidence. He knew that he could hang with Ortiz, once he settled down and actually engaged the “Huntington Beach Bad Boy” in a fight.

More than four years later, Evans is the former champion still in his fighting prime looking to get back to the top of the mountain. A win over Ortiz likely puts him at the front of the line for the winner of the upcoming battle between two of his arch enemies, Jon Jones and Quinton Jackson.

Ortiz, by contrast, is looking to make one final title push. Keep in mind that Ortiz was in a must-win situation, if he wanted to continue competing in the UFC, heading into his UFC 132 fight last month. His submission win over Ryan Bader was the first mixed martial arts bout that Ortiz has won since defeating Ken Shamrock back in October 2006.

So, what will happen this time around? The rematch between Evans and Ortiz will be decided by one factor: takedowns.

If Ortiz is able to take down Evans with any sort of regularity, he wins the fight.  If Evans is able to avoid being taken down for two of the three rounds or take down Ortiz with some regularity, he wins the fight.  

It really is that simple.

How can I be so sure?  Easy. Evans is much better in the standup realm. He is an expert counterstriker who has the speed and power to knock out just about anyone in the division, assuming he has the confidence to sit down and commit to his punches. In fact, I’ll go so far as to argue that Evans has the fastest hands in the division, bar none.  

Suga’s hand speed gives him a tremendous advantage against just about anyone. Unlike most counterpunchers, Suga doesn’t like to slip punches and fire back. His forte is countering before his opponent completes a strike.  In other words, he fires a counter off of his opponent’s tell sign, and his blazing hand speed allows him to land first in those instances.

The perfect example is when Evans fought Liddell.  Evans noticed during pre-fight film study that Liddell’s expression changed or his face curled up with determination milliseconds before he fired a lead power punch, so he sat back and waited for that moment to arrive.  Evans fired a fully committed right hand the instant Liddell tipped his hand with his tell sign, and the punch landed right on the button, immediately ending the fight.

If Evans had the juice to knock out Liddell when he was still near the prime of his career, he certainly has the juice to stop a 36-year-old Ortiz. If the two engage in a firefight or any sort of contest that unfolds largely on the feet, then Evans winning by knockout seems like the most likely outcome. His standup skills are that much better.

Similarly, if Evans can put his fellow former champion on his back and keep him there for significant portions of the fight, he should be able to walk away with a victory. Granted, Ortiz has excellent Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills, including a grossly underrated offensive guard. Yet, there is very little chance that Ortiz scores a submission win over Evans. Not unless he first rocks Evans with some sort of strike, resulting in him making a rudimentary mistake.

Evans probably shouldn’t worry too much about searching for a submission, if he is able to score a takedown.  Fans must remember that Ortiz has not been submitted in more than a decade. The last time it happened he was so exhausted that he could hardly move— a situation that a cardio machine like Ortiz is not likely to face again.  Evans won’t be the one to break that streak. Not on Saturday night anyway.

Yet, if Evans can put Ortiz on his back and grind away with conservative ground and pound, he should be able to score a judges’ decision, just like Couture did against Ortiz back in 2003. Again, Ortiz’s ground skills are much better today than they were in 2003, but he isn’t going to be the first man to score a submission victory over Evans. Not from his guard, at least.  

What if Ortiz is able to turn the table and put Evans on his back?

Well, if he can keep him there, then Ortiz wins the fight. Evans has never shown a great ability to defend from his guard. This guy is a lifelong wrestler, just like Ortiz, only he competed at a much higher level than Ortiz in the amateur ranks. Thus, like with many lifelong wrestlers, Evans is like a cockroach or a large tortoise on his back—basically harmless. And Ortiz is one of the best in the business at grinding out victories from the top position, if he is fortunate enough to score a takedown.  

What about Ortiz scoring a knockout on the feet?  

No chance.  Ortiz has shown better and better striking skills in each of his last several fights, including rocking and dropping Ryan Bader with a punch last month.  I certainly acknowledge that fact.  I will also acknowledge that anything can happen with those little vale tudo gloves.  It’s also accurate that Evans is viewed by many as being a bit “chinny.” Lyoto Machida left him in a heap in their 2009 bout. Thiago Silva and Quinton Jackson both rocked him badly in the final round of their losses by judges’ decision. But Ortiz doesn’t have the stand up juice of Machida, Silva or Rampage.

So what about Ortiz outpointing Evans on the feet?

Again, no chance at all.  Evans’ hand speed and technique will be too much for Ortiz, assuming he fights with confidence. In the first round of their last bout, Evans was hesitant in pulling the trigger. Shortly after the draw, Evans turned into one of the game’s elite sluggers. Of course, that came to an end when he got separated from consciousness by Machida. Since that time, Evans has shown less and less faith in his standup game. That may make him susceptible to dropping the first round. But that should be the only thing his tentativeness impacts. If Evans returns to his corner and hears that he lost the first round, he will begin to let his hands go, and that spells disaster for Ortiz.

So, how do I see the action unfolding?  

This fight seems to have Evans written all over it, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he will win. A perfectly healthy, well-prepared Ortiz performing at the top of his game is pretty darn difficult to defeat.  The fact that Evans is coming off the longest layoff of his career is also extremely significant. Cage rust may be a very real factor in the outcome of the fight. Another question is whether he is finally in a good place about getting knocked out by Machida.

On the other side of the Octagon, Ortiz is a complete unknown at this stage in his career, despite his win over Bader.  How will he perform after a month-long layoff?  Will he still have the same legendary cardiovascular conditioning?  Has he continued to develop his game to compete with the new breed of elite fighters?

Honestly, I don’t know the answers to any of those questions, and neither does anyone else.

I could easily write another 1,500 words stating a case in favor of either man winning.  That is what makes this fight so intriguing.  Instead, I’ll just sit back, relax and enjoy the action as it unfolds.

Quick Facts:

Rashad Evans
•    31 years old
•    5’11, 205 lbs
•    74.5-inch reach
•    20-1-1 overall (10-1-1 UFC)
•    4-1 in last 5 fights
•    8-1-1 in last 10 fights
•    3-1-1 against 5 current or former UFC champions
•    Former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion
•    147-day reign as champion; no successful title defenses
•    Former heavyweight winner on The Ultimate Fighter
•    Current layoff of 434 days is the longest of his career

Tito Ortiz
•    36 yrs old
•    6’3, 205 lbs
•    74-inch reach
•    17-8-1 overall (15-8-1 UFC)
•    1-3-1 in last 5 fights
•    5-4-1 in last 10
•    5-7-1 against 10 current or former champions, including UFC/PRIDE tournament champions
•    Former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion
•    Record for longest 205-lb title reign in UFC (1,260 days)
•    Record for most consecutive successful defenses of 205-lb title (5)
•    Current layoff of 35 days is the second shortest layoff of his professional career; shortest in more than a decade
•    557 days is the longest layoff of his career

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The Blueprint - Belfort vs. Akiyama

Vitor Belfort faces Yoshihiro Akiyama at UFC 133 on August 6th... Fresh off a devastating loss to Anderson Silva in his last bout, former champion and global fighting star Vitor Belfort will attempt to take a major step toward reestablishing himself as a middleweight title contender when he faces Asian superstar Yoshihiro Akiyama in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  Back-to-back losses, by contrast, would set him well back in the 185-pound pack.

Akiyama, who is in the midst of a two-fight losing streak, is still trying to figure out how to capture the same mixed martial arts superstardom that he enjoyed during his fighting run in Japan.  Three fights into his UFC career, the elite-level judoka remains an enigma. On one hand, he could easily be 0-3, but for the saving grace of two judges who surprisingly scored things in his favor when he faced off against Alan Belcher in his UFC debut.  On the other hand, each of his three UFC bouts was awarded the lucrative “Fight of the Night” honor by UFC President Dana White.

Akiyama remains the only fighter to earn that honor in each of his first three UFC bouts. Nonetheless, a third consecutive loss could spell problems for his fighting future.

It suffices to say that this fight has major career implications for both men. That sort of stress often causes fighters to clam up. I just don’t see that happening on Saturday night.

Belfort should prove to be a willing participant if Akiyama wants to continue his string of thrilling back-and-forth bouts.  “The Phenom” is on another level from Akiyama in terms of his standup skills. There is no doubt about that. But he isn’t at his best when pressured, so Akiyama’s best chance at winning, aside from utilizing his great judo skills, is to try and test Belfort in a barroom brawl.

Notice the qualifier? Akiyama’s most dominant skill is his judo.  And that is the only area of the fight where he enjoys any sort of advantage over Belfort.  Watching the former gold medalist from the 2001 Asian Championships and 2002 Asian Games throw around Chris Leben erased any doubt in my mind about this guy’s ability to transition his judo skills to mixed martial arts, and he needs to rely heavily on those skills if he wants to defeat Belfort.

Keep in mind that Chris Leben has excellent takedown defense after spending the first several years of his career as a member of Team Quest.  That affiliation gave him the opportunity to train on a daily basis with some of the best wrestlers that the UFC has ever seen, including Greco Roman guys like Randy Couture.  Leben never imagined that Akiyama would be able to take him down with any regularity, but that is precisely what happened when the skilled judoka got his hands on the star slugger.  In fact, Akiyama was able to take him down basically whenever he wanted.  His throws and trips are that good.

The problem, of course, is that Belfort has serious game in the clinch. I would rank it above Leben, in terms of his ability to defend and counter throws. His knee strikes are also far and away superior to those possessed by Leben. But many would take Leben’s judo defense and uppercuts over Belfort’s great athleticism, physical strength and knees. Who knows who is right?  

One way Belfort can guarantee that the fight remains on the feet is control the distance with the jab and keep Akiyama off balance by using lots of lateral movement.  It probably isn’t a shock to anyone who has watched the Brazilian throughout his career that he rarely relies on the jab, despite the fact that he displays an excellent one in sparring. Instead, he prefers to stand with his left hand cocked and wait for his foe to make a mistake so he can counter with a lights-out left.  

Akiyama should counter Belfort’s tendency by smothering him with pressure.  That is dangerous against a standup savage like Belfort, but it is the judoka’s best chance at winning.  Belfort’s Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and overall grappling skills are otherworldly in the training gym, but he has never really brought them to a fight, for whatever inexplicable reason.

If Belfort can avoid the takedown, he should win the fight fairly easily and inside the distance.  Keep in mind, of course, that anything can happen when two highly trained athletes begin exchanging punches with those tiny vale tudo gloves.  Anyone can get knocked out at any time.  But Belfort wins a kickboxing contest with Akiyama move than 99 percent of the time, in my opinion.

If the fight goes to the ground, Belfort should take a page out of the game plan that Josh Koscheck created for Andrew Main on the 12th season of The Ultimate Fighter.  Main was told that if he found himself on his back that the only options were sweep, submit or stand up.  Belfort needs to take those words to heart.  

Akiyama is a skilled judoka, but like most who transition into mixed martial arts from that sport, his ground game isn’t designed to methodically hammer away on an opponent defending from his guard until a limb or neck presents itself for a submission.  Instead, judo is a game of hand and body position that relies heavily on the use of the gi by the attacker.  Strip a judoka of his gi and his submission game typically deteriorates, by major margins.

I don’t think Belfort has anything to fear in terms of submissions if he finds himself on his back. He is an elite black belt. Few debate that point. The problem, however, is that if he focuses solely on defending and resting from his guard, he will lose points on the judges’ cards for the time that he spends on his back.  There is no doubt about that based on the judging history over the past decade.

Belfort needs to be very proactive if he finds himself heading to the canvas.  He should instantly look for a submission or sweep during the transition. If neither opportunity presents itself, then he should do whatever it takes to quickly rise back to his feet.  Whether that means walking the cage, posting up with his arms or turning his back, it doesn’t matter.  Akiyama is not a slick MMA submission guy, so Belfort should take some chances to get back to his feet, where he has the overwhelming advantage.

If Belfort is able to keep his time on the mat to a minimum, he should win the fight.  And Belfort winning the fight almost always means winning by knockout. All eight of his UFC wins have come inside the distance, and seven of them ended in a knockout. That doesn’t bode well for Akiyama if the fight remains on the feet.

Typically, I would spend at least 200 words on the fact that Belfort has a notoriously light gas tank. I would write at length about how his foe should look to survive the first round and then begin forcing the action in the next two stanzas.  But, alas, Akiyama is known to have the exact same issue. So, this is a fight that seems destined to end early. Neither man wants it to last until the final bell.

This is another in a long line of classic examples of a fight that will likely be decided by which man is able to control where the fight unfolds.  If I had to pick, I’d side with Belfort.  He is one of the game’s best finishers, and I just don’t see where Akiyama has a decided advantage.  I view this matchup a lot like I did Belfort versus Rich Franklin, and we all know how that one ended.

Then again, Akiyama has surprised me before. He may very well do it again on Saturday night.

QUICK FACTS

Vitor Belfort
•    19-9 overall (8-5 UFC)
•    34 years old
•    6’0, 185 lbs
•    74-inch reach
•    3-1, 3 KOs at 195 lbs or less
•    4-1 in last 5 fights
•    7-3 in last 10
•    All 8 UFC wins inside the distance (7 by KO/TKO and 1 by SUB)
•    68.4% of career wins by KO/TKO
•    10.5% of career wins by SUB
•    21.1% of career wins by decision
•    33.3% of career losses by KO/TKO
•    11.1% of career losses by SUB
•    55.6% of career losses by decision
•    Former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion
•    Former UFC Heavyweight Tournament winner
•    Current layoff is 182 days
•    Longest layoff of his career is 504 days

Yoshihiro Akiyama
•    13-3, 2 NC overall (1-2 UFC)
•    35 years old (will be 36 by fight night)
•    5’10, 185 lbs
•    75-inch reach
•    3-2 in last 5 fights, including back-to-back losses coming into this fight
•    6-2, 2 NC in last 10 fights
•    Lone UFC win by split decision
•    16 out of 18 professional fights have ended inside the distance (12-2, 2NC in those fights; 1-1 in fights that lasted the distance)
•    14 out of 18 professional fights ended in the first round (10-1, 2 NC in those fights)
•    38.5% of career wins by KO/TKO
•    53.8% of career wins by SUB
•    7.7% of career wins by decision
•    3 career losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB and 1 decision
•    All 3 UFC fights won Fight of the Night
•    Current layoff is 294 days
•    Longest layoff of his career is 357 days

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The Blueprint: Cruz vs. Faber

The UFC bantamweight title is on the line Saturday night when Dominick Cruz defends his belt against Urijah Faber. Urijah Faber is the most famous 135-pound mixed martial artist in America—period.

The man with the million-dollar smile and elite skills was the face of the WEC for the three years leading up to the decision by Zuffa to fold the fledgling promotion into the UFC. He has probably signed thousands of autographs during and after his record-setting reign as a WEC champ. Faber has used his star power to successfully market himself like no other bantamweight in domestic MMA history. The net result is a burgeoning business empire in his native Sacramento and, of course, regular headliner status on fight cards, which means big checks for strapping on the gloves and fighting.

Dominick Cruz doesn’t have any of that. He isn’t famous. Cruz hasn’t appeared in major market commercials, unlike Faber’s K-Swiss cameos.

But none of that matters because Cruz has one thing that Faber desperately wants:  the UFC Bantamweight Championship.

Yes, that is right. Cruz is the reigning 135-pound champion, despite the fact that he will be making his UFC debut on Saturday night. The crown was won in his final WEC fight, and it was a well deserved honor. The little ball of fire is in the midst of a seven-fight winning streak, including three straight when WEC gold was at risk.  He has been as dominant over the last three years as any WEC fighter not named Jose Aldo.

But here is the kicker. Faber already owns a win over Cruz. Yes, you read that correctly. The pair squared off in a March 2007 fight. Faber was the reigning 145-pound champion at the time. Cruz was making his WEC debut after a long, successful career in regional promotions.

Faber dispatched him in 98 seconds via guillotine choke. That loss remains the lone blemish on Cruz’s otherwise perfect professional record.

For those who haven’t seen the fight, I’ll lay out how it unfolded.

The pair came out circling for the first 30 seconds, throwing some crazy kicks and punches without landing anything of consequence. It was definitely a feeling out period. Cruz landed the first strike of consequence 45 seconds into the bout—a right uppercut on the button. Faber shook it off like raindrops falling on his shoulders.

Faber pressed the action with wild strikes. Cruz countered with a big takedown. Faber brilliantly transitioned it into a sprawling guillotine, using it to quickly work back to his feet, while controlling his foe.

Once back up, Faber landed a monstrous knee to the forehead. It snapped Cruz’s head back. The challenger instinctively took down his foe, though it was apparent (to me, at least) that he was still suffering from the knee because he literally did nothing with the takedown, other than lay in place.

Faber quickly moved for a guillotine while the fight was transitioning. Cruz initially was in a good position, with his arm inside the guillotine, preventing Faber from finishing the hold. Yet, Cruz did nothing else to improve his position or defend. After a few seconds, Faber adjusted his upper body and slipped his left arm under Cruz’s chin, rolled to mount and finished the hold.

Cruz is 8-0 since that fight. Faber is 7-3. Both have since dropped down to 135 pounds.

I think the drop in weight favors Faber much more than Cruz. The champion is at least two inches taller than Faber, which means he is extremely tall and presumably will face a significant strength disadvantage at 135 pounds.  Both men are lightning fast. Both could be mistaken on any given day for the Energizer Bunny, but few men in the sport, across any division, possess a gas tank that rivals Faber’s. He is a conditioning machine, able to fight at a frenetic pace for five full rounds. That conditioning advantage should only get better for Faber, who has shed some unnecessary bulk.

Of course, Cruz is the champion. He has only tasted defeat once in his professional career. He is probably the more motivated of the two because of the way the first fight ended. I’d be shocked if Faber was taking the fight lightly because Cruz owns two wins over Faber’s teammate, Joseph Benavidez, as well as wins over tough competitors Brian Bowles and Scott Jorgensen. Cruz remains the only man to ever defeat Benavidez (he did it twice) and Bowles. Those are huge wins.

But again, the motivation advantage probably lies with Cruz. I imagine this guy living and breathing nothing but Faber on a daily basis. It has to burn white hot in his gut knowing that he is the champion, yet Faber is the one receiving all the pre-fight attention.

Cruz has been very vocal in his pre-fight interviews about his belief that he possesses the better standup skills. I’m not so sure about that. Cruz may have the more impressive 33 percent knockout ratio (six out of 18 total fights), compared to Faber’s 24 percent (seven out of 29 total fights). Nonetheless, Faber has definitely been in there with more of a murderer’s row of strikers during his career, typically doing just fine on the feet, if not getting the edge in the action.

I don’t think Cruz seeking to keep the fight on the feet is the answer. I instead think that his biggest key to victory is putting Faber on his back and keeping him there.

In the first fight, I was fairly shocked to witness Cruz score two quick, relatively easy takedowns. Of course, he did nothing with those two takedowns. But that is not the point. Faber is dangerous in every position, but his offensive guard is probably the one area of his game that lags a bit behind the others. Cruz should look to exploit that weakness with a series of takedowns followed by active, yet controlled, ground and pound.

Getting the former featherweight champ to the ground is often easier said than done. The key, as Cruz showed in the first fight, is to counter his punches with aggressive takedown attempts, rather than leading with them. Faber is too good of a wrestler to get taken down and controlled with lead double leg attempts. He is also excellent in the clinch, so I don’t see Cruz dragging him down. Changing levels in the face of a Faber lead right hand, by contrast, is just what the doctor ordered, if the champion wants to keep his 135-pound strap.

For his part, I think Faber also needs to put Cruz on his back. That is definitely his weakest offensive position. In 17 professional fights, Cruz has only a single submission win. Compare that to Faber’s 13. Plus, Faber already has a submission win over him, something that could wreak havoc on Cruz’s mind, if the “California Kid” locks in even a semi-tight submission at any point in the fight.

Faber can get the fight to the ground in a number of ways. Many people often forget that he holds the record for all-time wins in collegiate wrestling at the University of California, Davis. He is, by far, the better wrestler in this matchup. He can take down Cruz in a number of ways—shooting from the outside, dragging him down or throwing him from the clinch, executing a high crotch against the cage, or, best of all, using his striking to get Cruz’s weight back on his heels and then slamming him with a double leg.

Whatever the case, Cruz is in a world of trouble if he finds himself on the ground with Faber pounding away. He should do whatever it takes to stand up in that situation. Faber will likely be the crowd favorite on Saturday night, so time spent in the top position mixed with cheers from his fans every time he lands even grazing shots is a perfect recipe for a judges’ decision. Cruz needs to keep that in mind and stay off his back.

In my breakdown of Wanderlei Silva versus Chris Leben, I stated that there are two types of mixed martial arts fans. The gladiatorial type, who love drop-down, drag-out wars, and the cerebral type, who prefer combat chess matches. This fight definitely will appeal to the latter. Neither guy has show stopping power in their hands. Both are fairly elusive targets on the feet. Neither man is easy to take down or control on the ground. And both fight as much with their brain as their brawn.

With that said, this may also turn into a serious slugfest. That is the great thing about the little guys. The lack of jaw-dropping striking power is replaced with amazing speed, deep gas tanks and constant action.

To be honest, I like Faber to win in any scenario. His power and speed should carry the day in a slugfest, though anything can happen when two guys plant their feet and swing away. His speed and elusiveness should carry the day in a hunt-and-peck scenario. His wrestling should carry the day in determining where the fight unfolds. And, if he is unable to dictate the position of the fight, his submissions and ability to work back to his feet almost at will should decide the outcome.

Then again, Cruz is the champion for a reason. This guy is no joke. He often appears to face significant disadvantages on paper. Yet, he always finds a way to win. Always, except in his previous bout with Faber.

We will see what happens on Saturday night.

QUICK FACTS:

Dominick Cruz
•    26 years old
•    5’8, 135
•    68-inch reach
•    17-1 overall (7-1 WEC)
•    5-0 in last 5
•    9-1 in last 10
•    59% of win by decision (10/17)
•    35% of wins by KO/TKO (6/17)
•    6% of wins by submission (1/17)
•    Lone professional loss to Faber by submission
•    Won Fight of the Night in WEC once
•    Linear WEC Bantamweight Champion (2 successful defenses)
•    Current layoff is 198 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 364 days

Urijah Faber
•    32 years old
•    5’6, 135 pounds
•    69-inch reach
•    25-4 overall (10-3 WEC/UFC)
•    3-2 in last 5
•    7-3 in last 10
•    52% of wins by submission (13/25)
•    28% of wins by KO/TKO (7/25)
•    16% of wins by decision (4/25)
•    4% of wins by DQ (1/25)
•    Former WEC Featherweight Champion (5 successful defenses)
•    WEC Submission of the Night three times
•    WEC Fight of the Night twice
•    Current layoff is 105 days
•    Longest layoff of career is 217 days

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